What will happen when the u. s. leaves iraq?!


Question:

What will happen when the u. s. leaves iraq?


Answers:

That depends entirely on the circumstances. If we just say that its, "time to go" and takeoff, there will likely be a drawn-out civil war with international intervention. Iran wants stability but will back the Shi'ites. Most Arab countries are Sunni so it can be expected that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the North African states will back the Sunnis. Turkey will most likely invade and occupy the Kurd-run areas. This is the sort of scenario that leads to a large-scale regional war, severe interruption of oil supplies, severe western economic problems, and intervention. In the chaos, it is likely that an Islamic dictatorship would rule parts of the area. Basically, we'd be back and it would be a lot worse then it is now.

If we stayed but allowed the civil war to be fought but only getting involved versus the most radical Islamacists, eventually either one faction would rule via a dictator or there would no longer be an Iraq. This option would probably be the easiest to accomplish. Turkey and Iran are both against this, however, since an independent Kurdistan would cause them both severe domestic problems.

The third would involve continuing as we are and leaving when Iraq is ready. By far this is the best long-term option but it is a political impossibility in the USA. It would most likely involve counterinsurgency operations for 10-20 years but the end result would be a stable Iraqi republic that would show the people of the region that other options are out there then terrorism to get their way.

The reason the USA is fighting in Iraq is to promote stability in the region so as to deflect it being a cause for a world-scale war centered on the civilization-ending threat of radical Islam. That (at least in the short term) has obviously not happened.


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